Commentary

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 12/14/18

Stripped of technical argle-bargle and on-the-one-hand: the US economy is fine. The outside world is not. US wages are still suppressed, but it’s not a sign of economic roll-over. The Inspector Clouseaus at the Fed continue to expect record-low unemployment to create wage pressure, as they did when unemployment fell below 6%, then 5%, and…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 12/7/18

Delicate today: what to worry about, and what not? A revised game of pulling daisy petals: worry, worry not, worry, worry not…. Not: yield curve and recession. The 10-year T-note topped at 3.23% one month ago, so high mostly because of misunderstanding chair Powell’s “long way from neutral.” At first slowly and then quickly after…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 11/30/2018

This has been a big week for Fed speakers, but big economic data arrives next week and another matter overrides: the interagency climate report released last Friday — on Black Friday to avoid public notice. Thus today is the annual Third Rail issue: for the first time in 30 years of publishing, write about climate.…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 11/16/2018

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – Nov. 16, 2018 Odds are increasing for a surprise slowdown in the economy and a sudden halt to Fed rate hikes. That’s odds, as in Fancy Dan in the 5th at Pimlico. There are so many forces in play, so many lags in the effect of Fed…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 11/9/2018

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – Nov. 9, 2018 The immediate reaction to the election was a 545-point jump in the Dow, and long-term rates on the edge of upward breakout. The widespread assumption: Democrats did not do as well as hoped/feared, not a wave but a ripple. The Republican gain in the…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 11/2/2018

The bond market and Fed pay more attention to the monthly employment data than all other indicators put together because jobs and wages tend to determine inflation. These reports arrive on the first Friday of each month, today, and the strong results in this report have had strong effect. There are long stretches of time…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 10/26/18

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – Oct. 26, 2018 Oh, goody! The election is eleven days away, and chaos everywhere! Some news clarity follows below, as well as a little questionable news, possibly fake. The center of probability shifted overnight Thursday to Friday. Before, the stock slide and possible softness in housing seemed…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES- 10/19/2018

We are entering a period of change, greater outside the US than inside, which creates temptation to prediction. Never, ever go that way — stick with describing change. Here, economically anyway, there is only one shift underway and it is misunderstood. The Fed is not going to raise the cost of money inevitably, continuously, or…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES- 10/12/18

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – Oct. 12, 2018 At the end of a week like this it is important to stay in touch with our sense of humor.     Begin with the stock market’s little banana peel oops-a-daisy. Nothing funny about losing money, but the reaction of the market’s groupies is priceless. The…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 10/5/2018

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – Oct. 5, 2018 Mortgage rates since Wednesday have jumped, today pressing on 5.25% for lowest-fee loans… but, other than dazed lenders, nobody knows. “If a tree falls in the forest, and there is no one nearby to hear… will it make a sound?” In this case, silence.…

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