Commentary

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES-3-8-19

The most important economic report each month is the release of employment stats in the first week for the immediately prior month. If so important, you’d think we’d get it right. But the numbers are so big, and survey-based, and seasonally adjusted by dampened finger in the breeze that once in a while the result…

Read More

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/1/2019

Scary reports are giving way to better if ordinary ones, and interest rates are rising slightly. There is no way for rates to fall below February levels without news which would tilt the Fed toward cutting the cost of money — the whole Treasury maturity spectrum out to ten years had fallen within a quarter-percent…

Read More

Lou’s Market Update 2-22-19

For the time being, US financial news is good. Stocks are holding their recovery nicely, the 10-year T-note has made it five-straight weeks in a range 2.75%-2.65%, keeping mortgages just above 4.50%. US economic data is not quite so happy. Orders for durable goods, a proxy for business capital investment dropped .7% in December, and…

Read More

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 2/15/2019

A quiet Friday before a long holiday weekend, markets poorly attended, any surprise news magnified… National emergency!!! Exactly. The left-wing branch of the Tea Party has run Amazon out of NYC. Take your rotten 25,000 jobs and $2 billion in annual tax revenue and shove it. Oh… that other emergency? Market reactions: the Dow is…

Read More

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 1/8/19

Long-term US interest rates continue to slide despite immense Treasury borrowing, unprecedented in a time of strong economic expansion. Mortgage rates are falling toward 4.50%, pulled down by the 10-year T-note at 2.63%, its lowest in a year. “Strong” is right, here. The ISM survey of purchasing managers in January found the service sector (think…

Read More

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 2/1/2019

Big changes, and all good news. So you can stop reading now. The Fed seems to have changed policy, possibly in some long-term ways, and its apparent shift may be real, as opposed to misstatement or fog (see below). Brand-new economic data from January is pink-of-health, no harm from the Shutdown except to the families…

Read More

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 1/25/19

The Shutdown is crimping the collection and release of US economic data, but the numbers dribbling out show no particular change. Interest rates are steady, maybe going lower as the threats of overheating and inflation fade. The Shutdown may be ending temporarily as this piece goes to press. Given the shortage of US data, and…

Read More

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES

  MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – Jan. 4, 2019 Everybody, calm down. Not just a deep breath, but lasting calm. Markets, new data, and three extraordinary leaders today conspired to bring peace. We added 312,000 new jobs in December, the prior two months revised up, and to remind us of the approximate…

Read More

Credit News by Lou Barnes 12/28/18

It is customary at this time to make predictions for the New Year. After the last few weeks, months, year… a joke, right? Nope. Nuthin’ to it, much like 2018. Except that any forecast in these years must include craziness. Embrace the goofy and proceed. 2018? One year ago it was routine to see ahead…

Read More

Credit News by Lou Barnes 12/21/18

Letters like this just before Christmas are often just a greeting, or a cuddly remembrance of blessings and gratitude for each other. Maybe next year. Before delivering sacks of sticks and coal to the Fed, sort out other proceedings…. Early this week (which feels like a month), legal walls were closing in again on Mr.…

Read More