Commentary

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 2/15/2019

A quiet Friday before a long holiday weekend, markets poorly attended, any surprise news magnified… National emergency!!! Exactly. The left-wing branch of the Tea Party has run Amazon out of NYC. Take your rotten 25,000 jobs and $2 billion in annual tax revenue and shove it. Oh… that other emergency? Market reactions: the Dow is…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 1/8/19

Long-term US interest rates continue to slide despite immense Treasury borrowing, unprecedented in a time of strong economic expansion. Mortgage rates are falling toward 4.50%, pulled down by the 10-year T-note at 2.63%, its lowest in a year. “Strong” is right, here. The ISM survey of purchasing managers in January found the service sector (think…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 2/1/2019

Big changes, and all good news. So you can stop reading now. The Fed seems to have changed policy, possibly in some long-term ways, and its apparent shift may be real, as opposed to misstatement or fog (see below). Brand-new economic data from January is pink-of-health, no harm from the Shutdown except to the families…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 1/25/19

The Shutdown is crimping the collection and release of US economic data, but the numbers dribbling out show no particular change. Interest rates are steady, maybe going lower as the threats of overheating and inflation fade. The Shutdown may be ending temporarily as this piece goes to press. Given the shortage of US data, and…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES

  MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – Jan. 4, 2019 Everybody, calm down. Not just a deep breath, but lasting calm. Markets, new data, and three extraordinary leaders today conspired to bring peace. We added 312,000 new jobs in December, the prior two months revised up, and to remind us of the approximate…

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Credit News by Lou Barnes 12/28/18

It is customary at this time to make predictions for the New Year. After the last few weeks, months, year… a joke, right? Nope. Nuthin’ to it, much like 2018. Except that any forecast in these years must include craziness. Embrace the goofy and proceed. 2018? One year ago it was routine to see ahead…

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Credit News by Lou Barnes 12/21/18

Letters like this just before Christmas are often just a greeting, or a cuddly remembrance of blessings and gratitude for each other. Maybe next year. Before delivering sacks of sticks and coal to the Fed, sort out other proceedings…. Early this week (which feels like a month), legal walls were closing in again on Mr.…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 12/14/18

Stripped of technical argle-bargle and on-the-one-hand: the US economy is fine. The outside world is not. US wages are still suppressed, but it’s not a sign of economic roll-over. The Inspector Clouseaus at the Fed continue to expect record-low unemployment to create wage pressure, as they did when unemployment fell below 6%, then 5%, and…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 12/7/18

Delicate today: what to worry about, and what not? A revised game of pulling daisy petals: worry, worry not, worry, worry not…. Not: yield curve and recession. The 10-year T-note topped at 3.23% one month ago, so high mostly because of misunderstanding chair Powell’s “long way from neutral.” At first slowly and then quickly after…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 11/30/2018

This has been a big week for Fed speakers, but big economic data arrives next week and another matter overrides: the interagency climate report released last Friday — on Black Friday to avoid public notice. Thus today is the annual Third Rail issue: for the first time in 30 years of publishing, write about climate.…

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