Commentary

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES -4/5/2019

The credit markets rate-bottomed last week, the 10-year T-note at 2.37%. The long-overdue rebound began but has stopped cold at 2.50%, mortgages in a confusing mass of rate-versus-fee near 4.25% and holding. Nothing to worry about. Nor in the Fed-sensitive 2-year T-note. At its low at 2.20% last week ever so slightly predicting a Fed…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/29/2019

The single week, March 18th to 25th was weird because long-term rates fell so far so fast, and so quickly after the huge drop November to December. Now it’s weirder because rates have stayed down. No rebound upward, no “retracement.” Market theory says that big moves in either direction should retrace by one-third, and begin…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/22/2019

Goodness gracious. The March Hare is loose, along with Bugs and the Easter Bunny, and a whole lot of people inside and out of markets look like Elmer in undignified pursuit of this herd of wascawy wabbits. Long-term rates, bonds and mortgages have been falling, are falling, and maybe will fall. To understand what has,…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/15/2019

Long-term rates today have slipped to a 13-month low. Narrowly, but there: the 10-year T-note to 2.59%, and no-discount mortgages almost 4.50%. The Fed-predicting 2-year T-note has oozed its way down to 2.43%, an 11-month low. The Fed’s “policy rate,” known as the fed funds rate, the overnight cost of money, is set in a…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES-3-8-19

The most important economic report each month is the release of employment stats in the first week for the immediately prior month. If so important, you’d think we’d get it right. But the numbers are so big, and survey-based, and seasonally adjusted by dampened finger in the breeze that once in a while the result…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/1/2019

Scary reports are giving way to better if ordinary ones, and interest rates are rising slightly. There is no way for rates to fall below February levels without news which would tilt the Fed toward cutting the cost of money — the whole Treasury maturity spectrum out to ten years had fallen within a quarter-percent…

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Lou’s Market Update 2-22-19

For the time being, US financial news is good. Stocks are holding their recovery nicely, the 10-year T-note has made it five-straight weeks in a range 2.75%-2.65%, keeping mortgages just above 4.50%. US economic data is not quite so happy. Orders for durable goods, a proxy for business capital investment dropped .7% in December, and…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 2/15/2019

A quiet Friday before a long holiday weekend, markets poorly attended, any surprise news magnified… National emergency!!! Exactly. The left-wing branch of the Tea Party has run Amazon out of NYC. Take your rotten 25,000 jobs and $2 billion in annual tax revenue and shove it. Oh… that other emergency? Market reactions: the Dow is…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 1/8/19

Long-term US interest rates continue to slide despite immense Treasury borrowing, unprecedented in a time of strong economic expansion. Mortgage rates are falling toward 4.50%, pulled down by the 10-year T-note at 2.63%, its lowest in a year. “Strong” is right, here. The ISM survey of purchasing managers in January found the service sector (think…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 2/1/2019

Big changes, and all good news. So you can stop reading now. The Fed seems to have changed policy, possibly in some long-term ways, and its apparent shift may be real, as opposed to misstatement or fog (see below). Brand-new economic data from January is pink-of-health, no harm from the Shutdown except to the families…

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