Commentary

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S. BARNES – 8-30-19

Now we wait. Will the September 1st tariffs take effect, or will China or the White House blink? If they take effect, how soon the effect on rates? Will the world’s central banks follow through with a cascade of cuts? Will overseas weakness spread to the US? Should the Fed cut before? In order, no…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES – 8-9-19

How to explain to mostly sensible homeowners and their Realtors, many properly preoccupied by El Paso and Dayton, that today‘s mortgage rate was set the night before by China’s daily fixing of the exchange rate of its yuan? The net effect this week has been small since the new tariff announcement last Thursday, but exciting…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES – 8-2-19

In moments of chaos, set the thinking thermostat on ice-cold. Try to find the center of probability ahead, no wild swings. Put wishes aside. No prisoners. Credit markets watch the Fed — and the economy, because that’s what the Fed watches. last week I thought we knew this week’s risks if not the outcomes: the…

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Mortgage Credit News by Lou S Barnes- 7/19/19

Markets are quiet, most of the country with any sense on vacation near water, and anyway waiting for something to happen (Iran may solve that problem). Which provides a moment to back away from the immediate scene and to examine the overall, odd situation, and the making of Fed policy at its meeting in ten…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 5/3/2019

With so much going on it’s quite an accomplishment for long-term rates to be unchanged for the fifth week in a row. Maybe an extended April Fool, but the 10-year T-note is stuck on 2.50% and lowest-fee mortgages near 4.50%. This morning’s bulge in April jobs has had no effect, partly because wage growth did…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 4/26/2019

Apologies for interrupting the NFL draft, and the entire Democratic party running for president. But we have unusual news from the financial markets, the economy, and the Fed. Four weeks into April, and the all-important 10-year T-note has traded between 2.47% and 2.59% the entire month. Unusual? Hah. 10s were supposed to continue their upward…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 4/19/2019

A holiday-short week, and little of economic substance. In the few reports released, if anything a little better than thought. The 10-year T-note early in the week was headed up to 2.65%-2.70%, a solid trading range December-February, but stopped short at 2.56%, mortgages near 4.50%. Why the stop-short? In real time the most likely cause…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES -4/5/2019

The credit markets rate-bottomed last week, the 10-year T-note at 2.37%. The long-overdue rebound began but has stopped cold at 2.50%, mortgages in a confusing mass of rate-versus-fee near 4.25% and holding. Nothing to worry about. Nor in the Fed-sensitive 2-year T-note. At its low at 2.20% last week ever so slightly predicting a Fed…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/29/2019

The single week, March 18th to 25th was weird because long-term rates fell so far so fast, and so quickly after the huge drop November to December. Now it’s weirder because rates have stayed down. No rebound upward, no “retracement.” Market theory says that big moves in either direction should retrace by one-third, and begin…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/22/2019

Goodness gracious. The March Hare is loose, along with Bugs and the Easter Bunny, and a whole lot of people inside and out of markets look like Elmer in undignified pursuit of this herd of wascawy wabbits. Long-term rates, bonds and mortgages have been falling, are falling, and maybe will fall. To understand what has,…

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