Commentary

MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 5/3/2019

With so much going on it’s quite an accomplishment for long-term rates to be unchanged for the fifth week in a row. Maybe an extended April Fool, but the 10-year T-note is stuck on 2.50% and lowest-fee mortgages near 4.50%. This morning’s bulge in April jobs has had no effect, partly because wage growth did…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 4/26/2019

Apologies for interrupting the NFL draft, and the entire Democratic party running for president. But we have unusual news from the financial markets, the economy, and the Fed. Four weeks into April, and the all-important 10-year T-note has traded between 2.47% and 2.59% the entire month. Unusual? Hah. 10s were supposed to continue their upward…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 4/19/2019

A holiday-short week, and little of economic substance. In the few reports released, if anything a little better than thought. The 10-year T-note early in the week was headed up to 2.65%-2.70%, a solid trading range December-February, but stopped short at 2.56%, mortgages near 4.50%. Why the stop-short? In real time the most likely cause…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES -4/5/2019

The credit markets rate-bottomed last week, the 10-year T-note at 2.37%. The long-overdue rebound began but has stopped cold at 2.50%, mortgages in a confusing mass of rate-versus-fee near 4.25% and holding. Nothing to worry about. Nor in the Fed-sensitive 2-year T-note. At its low at 2.20% last week ever so slightly predicting a Fed…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/29/2019

The single week, March 18th to 25th was weird because long-term rates fell so far so fast, and so quickly after the huge drop November to December. Now it’s weirder because rates have stayed down. No rebound upward, no “retracement.” Market theory says that big moves in either direction should retrace by one-third, and begin…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/22/2019

Goodness gracious. The March Hare is loose, along with Bugs and the Easter Bunny, and a whole lot of people inside and out of markets look like Elmer in undignified pursuit of this herd of wascawy wabbits. Long-term rates, bonds and mortgages have been falling, are falling, and maybe will fall. To understand what has,…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/15/2019

Long-term rates today have slipped to a 13-month low. Narrowly, but there: the 10-year T-note to 2.59%, and no-discount mortgages almost 4.50%. The Fed-predicting 2-year T-note has oozed its way down to 2.43%, an 11-month low. The Fed’s “policy rate,” known as the fed funds rate, the overnight cost of money, is set in a…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES-3-8-19

The most important economic report each month is the release of employment stats in the first week for the immediately prior month. If so important, you’d think we’d get it right. But the numbers are so big, and survey-based, and seasonally adjusted by dampened finger in the breeze that once in a while the result…

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MORTGAGE CREDIT NEWS BY LOUIS S BARNES- 3/1/2019

Scary reports are giving way to better if ordinary ones, and interest rates are rising slightly. There is no way for rates to fall below February levels without news which would tilt the Fed toward cutting the cost of money — the whole Treasury maturity spectrum out to ten years had fallen within a quarter-percent…

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Lou’s Market Update 2-22-19

For the time being, US financial news is good. Stocks are holding their recovery nicely, the 10-year T-note has made it five-straight weeks in a range 2.75%-2.65%, keeping mortgages just above 4.50%. US economic data is not quite so happy. Orders for durable goods, a proxy for business capital investment dropped .7% in December, and…

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