Oh, bOh, boy. What in this strange week is important, and what not? Wuhan. (Gesundheit.) Even if China’s extraordinary self-quarantine shutdown works, and in another two weeks the incidence of new infection begins to drop, the damage to China’s economy will be considerable. Current estimates shave 2020 GDP from 6% to 4%, but the harm…

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In a week with no economic data, the US 10-year T-note has fallen today to 1.69%, the lowest trade since Halloween. HOWEVER, the 10-year needs to break below this level to make a run at last summer’s 1.47% and mortgages near 3.50%, and the move this week is concentrated in Treasurys, not yet mortgages. That…

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We interrupt all of that other stuff for a brief message from the outside world, and good news. Normally, good news is bad for interest rates, but the news is so delicately good that it has not hurt rates. The 10-year T-note has retreated from 1.80%, and mortgages are still trading close to 4.00%. At…

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The top financial stories underway: an outbreak of good news around the world has pushed up interest rates, countered in paart by paralysis in advance of the Fed meeting on the 30th, and concern for rapidly shifting US politics. There were no meaningful new economic reports this week, all steady as she goes, no rising…

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For many people owning home is major goal in their life. Owning a home can seem like an intimidating task because of the obligations and responsibilities that are entailed in the process but do not let that scare you. Here are the 4 biggest benefits of owning a home. 1. Gain Equity: Home equity is…

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We have interest rate and Fed surprises, but lost in all of that other stuff. Long-term rates have jumped in the last 48 hours on hopes for a trade deal with China (which may be aided by all of that other stuff), and even a Brexit deal. The jump has several lessons about who pushes…

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Now we wait. Will the September 1st tariffs take effect, or will China or the White House blink? If they take effect, how soon the effect on rates? Will the world’s central banks follow through with a cascade of cuts? Will overseas weakness spread to the US? Should the Fed cut before? In order, no…

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How to explain to mostly sensible homeowners and their Realtors, many properly preoccupied by El Paso and Dayton, that today‘s mortgage rate was set the night before by China’s daily fixing of the exchange rate of its yuan? The net effect this week has been small since the new tariff announcement last Thursday, but exciting…

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In moments of chaos, set the thinking thermostat on ice-cold. Try to find the center of probability ahead, no wild swings. Put wishes aside. No prisoners. Credit markets watch the Fed — and the economy, because that’s what the Fed watches. last week I thought we knew this week’s risks if not the outcomes: the…

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Markets are quiet, most of the country with any sense on vacation near water, and anyway waiting for something to happen (Iran may solve that problem). Which provides a moment to back away from the immediate scene and to examine the overall, odd situation, and the making of Fed policy at its meeting in ten…

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