Mortgage Rates Increase on Inflation Concerns

Mortgage interest rates increased this past week on inflation concerns associated with higher commodity prices and a potential trade war with China.  Economic data was mixed.  Economic data stronger than expected included the May Empire State Manufacturing Index, the May NAHB Housing Market Index, April Industrial Production, and the May Philadelphia Fed Business Index.  The new orders component of the Philadelphia Fed Business Index reached a 45 year high.  Economic data weaker than expected included March Business Inventories, April Housing Starts, April Capacity Utilization, and Weekly Jobless Claims.  April Retail Sales, April Building Permits, and April Leading Economic Indicators were in line with expectations.  The GDPNow model forecasts Q2 GDP growth at 4.1%.  The Fed is still on track to increase the Fed Funds rate two more times this year.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at 24,739, up slightly on the week.  The crude oil spot price is currently at $71.48 per barrel, up almost $1 per barrel on the week.  The Dollar strengthened versus the Euro and Yen on the week.

 

Next week look toward Wednesday’s PMI Composite Flash, New Home Sales, and FOMC Minutes, Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims, FHFA House Price Index, and Existing Home Sales, and Friday’s Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Sentiment Index as potential market moving events.

Mortgage Rates Increase Slightly Despite Mostly Weaker Economic Data

Mortgage interest rates increased slightly despite mostly weaker than expected economic data.  Economic data weaker than expected included March Consumer Credit, the April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the April Producer Price Index (PPI), March Wholesale Inventories, the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), April Import Prices, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.  April PPI was up just 0.1% and April CPI was up just 0.2%.  Year over year, though, PPI was up 2.6% and CPI was up 2.5%.  St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard stated that he doesn’t see a reason to increase rates any further.  Markets, though, are concerned about inflation associated with strong employment, increasing energy prices, and increasing home prices.  It’s likely that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate two more times this year.  Economic data stronger than expected included the March JOLTS Job Openings report, Weekly Jobless Claims, the April Treasury Budget, and April Export Prices.  The Treasury auctioned $69 billion of 3 Year Notes, 10 Year Notes, and 30 Year Bonds which were met with somewhat soft demand. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at 24,835, up almost 600 points on the week.  The crude oil spot price is currently at $71.13 per barrel, up over $1 per barrel on the week.  The Dollar strengthened versus the Euro and Yen on the week.

Next week look toward Tuesday’s Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and Housing Market Index, Wednesday’s Housing Starts and Industrial Production, and Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey as potential market moving events.

Mortgage Rates Improve Slightly on Negative Economic Data

Mortgage interest rates improved slightly as economic data was mostly weaker than expected.  Economic data weaker than expected included March Personal Income, the April Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, March NAR Pending Home Sales, the April ISM Manufacturing Index, March Construction Spending, Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, the April ISM Services Sector Index, April Non-Farm Jobs, April Private Jobs, and April Average Hourly Earnings.  Economic data stronger than expected included April ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless Claims, March Factory Orders, and the April Unemployment Rate.  Unemployment fell to 3.9% on expectations of 4.0%.  As expected, the Fed left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged after its FOMC Meeting.  It also indicated that future increases will likely be gradual, calling into question whether the Fed will raise rates three more times this year.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at 24,145, down about 165 points on the week.  The crude oil spot price is currently at $69.03 per barrel, up about $1 per barrel on the week.  The Dollar strengthened versus the Euro and Yen on the week.

 

Next week look toward Monday’s Consumer Credit, Tuesday’s NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and JOLTS Job Openings, Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Wholesale Trade, Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Weekly Jobless Claims, and Friday’s Import and Export Prices and Consumer Sentiment Index as potential market moving events.

Mortgage Rates Flat Despite Positive Economic Data

Mortgage interest rates flat despite stronger than expected economic data.  Economic data stronger than expected included March Existing Home Sales, the February FHFA House Price Index, the February Case-Shiller Home Price Index, March New Home Sales, April Consumer Confidence, Weekly Jobless Claims, March Durable Goods Orders, the March U.S. Trade Deficit, the first look at Q1 GDP, the Q1 Employment Cost Index, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to a new low dating back to the inception of the report in 1969.  The Fed is expected to increase the Fed Funds rate at least two more times this year with some calling for three rate increases.  The Treasury auctioned $96 billion of 2 Year Notes, 5 Year Notes, and 7 Year Notes which were met with just okay demand.  Global tensions have lessened slightly as North and South Korean leaders met at the DMZ for the first time since the war began in 1950.  The European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at 24,237, down over 200 points on the week.  The crude oil spot price is currently at $68.08 per barrel, down slightly on the week.  The Dollar strengthened versus the Euro and Yen on the week.

 

Next week look toward Monday’s Personal Income and Outlays, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, and Pending Home Sales Index, Tuesday’s PMI Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index, and Construction Spending, Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Announcement, Thursday’s International Trade and Weekly Jobless Claims, and Friday’s employment report for April as potential market moving events.

 

 

Mortgage Rates Increase on Inflation Expectations

 

Mortgage interest rates increased this past week on increased inflation expectations.  Commodity prices have moved higher as the economic outlook has improved.  Economic data was mixed.  Economic data stronger than expected included March Retail Sales, March Housing Starts and Building Permits, and the April Philadelphia Fed Business Index.  Economic data weaker than expected included the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, the April NAHB Housing Market Index, and Weekly Jobless Claims.  February Business Inventories, March Capacity Utilization, and March Leading Economic Indicators were in line with expectations.  Global tensions have subsided recently as it appears that the U.S. and North Korea will meet in June at a summit for the first time in 30 years.  The European Central Bank may remove its current stimulus and increase its benchmark rate.  Corporate earnings are now the focus of equity markets with strong earnings expected.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at 24,527, up about 160 points on the week.  The crude oil spot price is currently at $67.90 per barrel, up slightly on the week.  The Dollar strengthened versus the Euro and Yen on the week.

 

Next week look toward Monday’s PMI Composite Flash and Existing Home Sales, Tuesday’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA House Price Index, New Home Sales, and Consumer Confidence Index, Thursday’s Durable Goods Orders, International Trade, and Jobless Claims, and Friday’s first look at Q1 GDP, Employment Cost Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, and Consumer Sentiment Index as potential market moving events.

Mortgage Rates Increase Slightly Despite Negative Data

Mortgage interest rates increased slightly as economic data continued to be mostly weaker than expected.  Economic data weaker than expected included the March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, February Wholesale Inventories, the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), the March Treasury Budget, Weekly Jobless Claims, March Import Prices, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the February JOLTS Job Openings report.  While weaker than expected, Wholesale Inventories reached their highest level since October 2013.  Economic data stronger than expected included the March Producer Price Index (PPI) as well as the core PPI, excluding the food and energy components.  PPI was up 3.0% year over year and core PPI was up 2.7% year over year.  CPI was up 2.4% year over year and core CPI was up 2.1% year over year.  The Treasury auctioned $64 billion of 3 Year Notes, 10 Year Notes, and 30 Year Bonds which were met with okay demand.  Trade tensions with China have subsided slightly and tensions with Syria have not increased today.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at 24,429, up almost 500 points on the week.  The crude oil spot price is currently at $67.27 per barrel, up over $5 per barrel on the week.  The Dollar weakened versus the Euro and strengthened versus the Yen on the week.

 

Next week look toward Monday’s Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and Housing Market Index, Tuesday’s Housing Starts and Industrial Production, and Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, and Leading Economic Indicators as potential market moving events.

 

 

Mortgage Rates Flat Despite Negative Economic Data

Mortgage interest rates were mostly flat on the week as economic data was mostly weaker than expected.  Economic data weaker than expected included the March ISM Manufacturing Index, February Construction Spending, the March ISM Services Sector Index, February Factory Orders, Weekly Jobless Claims, the February U.S. Trade Deficit, the March Unemployment Rate, March Non-Farm Payrolls, and March Private Jobs.  Non-Farm Payrolls were up just 103k on expectations that they would be up 175k.  Private Jobs were up just 102k on expectations that they would be up 175k.  Economic data stronger than expected included March Auto and Truck Sales and March ADP Private Jobs.  March Average Hourly Earnings were in line with expectations, up 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year.  Trade tensions with China continue to escalate as President Trump added $100 billion of tariffs to Chinese goods and services last night.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently at 24,321, up over 200 points on the week.  The crude oil spot price is currently at $63.31 per barrel, down over $1 per barrel on the week.  The Dollar strengthened versus the Euro and Yen on the week.

 

Next week look toward Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Wholesale Trade, Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and FOMC Minutes, Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Import and Export Prices, and Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Index and JOLTS job openings report as potential market moving events.  Also, the Treasury auctions 3-Year Notes, 10-Year Notes, and 30-Year Bonds which could impact markets.

Mortgage Rates Improve Despite Positive Economic Data

Mortgage interest rates improved slightly despite economic data that was mostly stronger than expected.  Economic data stronger than expected included the February Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the January Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the final look at Q4 GDP, February Wholesale Inventories, NAR Pending Home Sales, and Weekly Jobless Claims.  Weekly Jobless Claims fell to their lowest level since 1973.  Economic data weaker than expected included the March Consumer Confidence Index, the February U.S. Trade Deficit, the March Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.  While weaker than expected, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reached its highest final monthly level since January 2004.  Also of note, February Personal Income and Spending were in line with expectations.  The February core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, excluding food and energy, was up 0.2% month over month and 1.6% year over year, slightly higher than expected.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 24,103, up over 500 points on the week.  Markets are closed for Good Friday.  The crude oil spot price closed at $64.91 per barrel, down almost $1 per barrel on the week.  The Dollar strengthened versus the Euro and Yen on the week.

 

Next week look toward Monday’s ISM Manufacturing Index and Construction Spending, Wednesday’s Factory Orders and ISM Services Sector Index, Thursday’s International Trade and Jobless Claims, and Friday’s employment report for March as potential market moving events.